Conversely, Bush saw the smallest declines in states won by Kerry. In the seven states where Bush had only single digit drops, only two, were Kerry states. One one was Alaska and the other was Louisiana. I guess not all the ticked off Louisianan's are in Texas.
Anyway, with Bush's biggest drops coming from red states and the smallest drops coming from blue states, the result is the purple-ing of America. In 2004, the standard deviation in Bush's vote was 8.5. The standard deviation of his current approval rating is down to 7.4.
| State | 2005 Approval | 2005 Disapproval | _2004 | Change | 2004 Winner | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 42% | 54% | 61% | -19% | Bush | |
| Kansas | 43% | 54% | 62% | -19% | Bush | |
| South Dakota | 41% | 56% | 60% | -19% | Bush | |
| South Carolina | 40% | 58% | 58% | -18% | Bush | |
| Tennessee | 40% | 57% | 57% | -17% | Bush | |
| Arkansas | 38% | 58% | 54% | -16% | Bush | |
| Indiana | 44% | 53% | 60% | -16% | Bush | |
| North Carolina | 41% | 56% | 56% | -15% | Bush | |
| Wyoming | 54% | 44% | 69% | -15% | Bush | |
| Arizona | 40% | 55% | 55% | -15% | Bush | |
| Michigan | 33% | 65% | 48% | -15% | Kerry | |
| Oklahoma | 51% | 46% | 66% | -15% | Bush | |
| Alabama | 48% | 49% | 62% | -14% | Bush | |
| Missouri | 39% | 59% | 53% | -14% | Bush | |
| Nebraska | 52% | 45% | 66% | -14% | Bush | |
| North Dakota | 49% | 48% | 63% | -14% | Bush | |
| Ohio | 37% | 61% | 51% | -14% | Bush | |
| Kentucky | 46% | 50% | 60% | -14% | Bush | |
| Nevada | 37% | 60% | 50% | -13% | Bush | |
| Idaho | 55% | 44% | 68% | -13% | Bush | |
| Wisconsin | 36% | 61% | 49% | -13% | Kerry | |
| West Virginia | 43% | 55% | 56% | -13% | Bush | |
| Delaware | 33% | 65% | 46% | -13% | Kerry | |
| Virginia | 41% | 56% | 54% | -13% | Bush | |
| Illinois | 32% | 66% | 44% | -12% | Kerry | |
| Pennsylvania | 36% | 62% | 48% | -12% | Kerry | |
| California | 32% | 65% | 44% | -12% | Kerry | |
| New Jersey | 34% | 64% | 46% | -12% | Kerry | |
| Connecticut | 32% | 66% | 44% | -12% | Kerry | |
| Georgia | 46% | 52% | 58% | -12% | Bush | |
| Iowa | 38% | 61% | 50% | -12% | Bush | |
| New Hampshire | 37% | 61% | 49% | -12% | Kerry | |
| Maine | 33% | 66% | 45% | -12% | Kerry | |
| Mississippi | 48% | 48% | 59% | -11% | Bush | |
| Florida | 41% | 58% | 52% | -11% | Bush | |
| New Mexico | 39% | 58% | 50% | -11% | Bush | |
| Utah | 61% | 36% | 72% | -11% | Bush | |
| New York | 30% | 66% | 40% | -10% | Kerry | |
| Montana | 49% | 49% | 59% | -10% | Bush | |
| Maryland | 33% | 64% | 43% | -10% | Kerry | |
| Vermont | 29% | 69% | 39% | -10% | Kerry | |
| Colorado | 42% | 57% | 52% | -10% | Bush | |
| Rhode Island | 29% | 70% | 39% | -10% | Kerry | |
| Oregon | 38% | 59% | 47% | -9% | Kerry | |
| Alaska | 52% | 44% | 61% | -9% | Bush | |
| Massachusetts | 28% | 68% | 37% | -9% | Kerry | |
| Louisiana | 48% | 49% | 57% | -9% | Bush | |
| Minnesota | 39% | 58% | 48% | -9% | Kerry | |
| Washington | 38% | 59% | 46% | -8% | Kerry | |
| Hawaii | 39% | 54% | 45% | -6% | Kerry |
5 comments:
Part of the reason you're observing a larger decline in Bush states than in Kerry states is because you're looking at absolute declines. For example, it's mathematically possible to see a 29 point drop in approval in Utah between 2004 and now, but it's mathematically impossible to have seen a 29 point drop in Massachusetts (since Massachusetts was registering 28% approval in 2004).
If you calculate the relative change in approval you'll see that the declines are pretty evenly spread across the states. I've done that here.
Ooops. In 2004, Massachusetts was at 37%. Nonetheless, the point is still that you could very well expect larger absolute declines in states where the 2004 level was higher. Relative changes take into account differing bases.
Robert--
Good point. I went back and ran the numbers to look to see what states saw the biggest % change from 2004. Red states still top the list. Texas is now #2 and Kansas is #5.
Phil
One clarification: the 2004 numbers are VOTE returns from 2004, right? Not "approval" measured by the SurveyUSA poll. As we discuss this we sometimes talk about change in "approval" but it isn't quite the same measure in 2004 and 2005.
The uniform decline that Robert points out also appears when we look at change in SurveyUSA POLL data between June and October of 2005. The results are here
In the shorter run of June to October, the fall in support is pretty much even across states.
Charles
Charles--
Again a good point. See my most recent post on this.
Phil
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