tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5990055.post112968309656391666..comments2024-01-26T01:52:53.198-05:00Comments on PolySigh: Bush's 50 State Poll NumbersPhilip Klinknerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15559722693896372701noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5990055.post-1129818990486814882005-10-20T10:36:00.000-04:002005-10-20T10:36:00.000-04:00Charles--Again a good point. See my most recent p...Charles--<BR/><BR/>Again a good point. See my most recent post on this.<BR/><BR/>PhilPhilip Klinknerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15559722693896372701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5990055.post-1129818644511218852005-10-20T10:30:00.000-04:002005-10-20T10:30:00.000-04:00One clarification: the 2004 numbers are VOTE retur...One clarification: the 2004 numbers are VOTE returns from 2004, right? Not "approval" measured by the SurveyUSA poll. As we discuss this we sometimes talk about change in "approval" but it isn't quite the same measure in 2004 and 2005.<BR/><BR/>The uniform decline that Robert points out also appears when we look at change in SurveyUSA POLL data between June and October of 2005. The results are <A HREF="http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2005/10/surveyusa-50-state-approval.html" REL="nofollow">here</A><BR/><BR/>In the shorter run of June to October, the fall in support is pretty much even across states. <BR/><BR/>CharlesCharles Franklinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14359044151338650019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5990055.post-1129768822788322172005-10-19T20:40:00.000-04:002005-10-19T20:40:00.000-04:00Robert--Good point. I went back and ran the numbe...Robert--<BR/><BR/>Good point. I went back and ran the numbers to look to see what states saw the biggest % change from 2004. Red states still top the list. Texas is now #2 and Kansas is #5.<BR/><BR/>PhilPhilip Klinknerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15559722693896372701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5990055.post-1129711590704766352005-10-19T04:46:00.000-04:002005-10-19T04:46:00.000-04:00Ooops. In 2004, Massachusetts was at 37%. Nonethel...Ooops. In 2004, Massachusetts was at 37%. Nonetheless, the point is still that you could very well expect larger absolute declines in states where the 2004 level was higher. Relative changes take into account differing bases.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5990055.post-1129711281577204272005-10-19T04:41:00.000-04:002005-10-19T04:41:00.000-04:00Part of the reason you're observing a larger decli...Part of the reason you're observing a larger decline in Bush states than in Kerry states is because you're looking at absolute declines. For example, it's mathematically possible to see a 29 point drop in approval in Utah between 2004 and now, but it's mathematically impossible to have seen a 29 point drop in Massachusetts (since Massachusetts was registering 28% approval in 2004). <BR/><BR/>If you calculate the relative change in approval you'll see that the declines are pretty evenly spread across the states. I've done that <A HREF="http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/polls/50statechange.png" REL="nofollow">here</A>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com