Wednesday, October 19, 2005

State Poll Numbers Again

A commentor raises an interesting point about the previous post that Bush's declines were bound to be largest in red states since they had the farthest to fall. Point taken. To control for that the following table includes percentage decline from 2004. As you can see, many of Bush's biggest declines were still in the red states. Nonetheless, Bush's average decline was 24 percent in both red and blue states.


State2005 Approval2005 Disapproval_2004Change2004 Winner% Change
South Dakota41%56%60%-19%Bush-32%
Texas42%54%61%-19%Bush-31%
South Carolina40%58%58%-18%Bush-31%
Michigan33%65%48%-15%Kerry-31%
Kansas43%54%62%-19%Bush-31%
Arkansas38%58%54%-16%Bush-30%
Tennessee40%57%57%-17%Bush-30%
Illinois32%66%44%-12%Kerry-28%
Delaware33%65%46%-13%Kerry-28%
California32%65%44%-12%Kerry-28%
Connecticut32%66%44%-12%Kerry-27%
Ohio37%61%51%-14%Bush-27%
Arizona40%55%55%-15%Bush-27%
Wisconsin36%61%49%-13%Kerry-27%
Missouri39%59%53%-14%Bush-27%
North Carolina41%56%56%-15%Bush-27%
Nevada37%60%50%-13%Bush-27%
Indiana44%53%60%-16%Bush-27%
New Jersey34%64%46%-12%Kerry-26%
Maine33%66%45%-12%Kerry-26%
Pennsylvania36%62%48%-12%Kerry-26%
Vermont29%69%39%-10%Kerry-25%
New York30%66%40%-10%Kerry-25%
Rhode Island29%70%39%-10%Kerry-25%
New Hampshire37%61%49%-12%Kerry-24%
Massachusetts28%68%37%-9%Kerry-24%
Iowa38%61%50%-12%Bush-24%
Virginia41%56%54%-13%Bush-24%
West Virginia43%55%56%-13%Bush-23%
Alabama48%49%62%-14%Bush-23%
Maryland33%64%43%-10%Kerry-23%
Kentucky46%50%60%-14%Bush-23%
Oklahoma51%46%66%-15%Bush-22%
North Dakota49%48%63%-14%Bush-22%
New Mexico39%58%50%-11%Bush-22%
Wyoming54%44%69%-15%Bush-22%
Florida41%58%52%-11%Bush-21%
Nebraska52%45%66%-14%Bush-21%
Georgia46%52%58%-12%Bush-21%
Idaho55%44%68%-13%Bush-20%
Oregon38%59%47%-9%Kerry-19%
Mississippi48%48%59%-11%Bush-19%
Colorado42%57%52%-10%Bush-19%
Minnesota39%58%48%-9%Kerry-18%
Montana49%49%59%-10%Bush-17%
Washington38%59%46%-8%Kerry-17%
Louisiana48%49%57%-9%Bush-15%
Alaska52%44%61%-9%Bush-15%
Utah61%36%72%-11%Bush-15%
Hawaii39%54%45%-6%Kerry-14%

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