It's hard for me to imagine Hillary not getting the Democratic nomination if she really wants it. And it's hard for me to imagine Jeb not getting the Republican nomination if he really wants it (and if his brother remains popular). If he doesn't want it, Bill Frist will probably get it. Anyone wish to dispute me?
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I'm interested to know why you implicitly dismiss John McCain. It seems to me that his dedicated campaigning for George Bush implies an ambition beyond Candid Senator from Arizona. I think he earned a lot of "credits" with the conservative base of the Republican party, both for campaigning with Kerry and humiliating him (you have to assume that the claim last summer that Kerry had asked McCain "seven times" to be his running mate came from McCain). McCain, for all his vaunted centrism, is pro-life, which is an essential litmus test for the Republicans. You have to think that he will be a favorite if Jeb doesn't decide to run. Also, Frist has been something of a disappointed, not nearly as smooth as I was hoping or expecting. Just some thoughts.
I suspect that John McCain's age will make it difficult for him to gain the nominatiion, and I absolutely agree with the comment regarding Jeb. The Dems are a different story. There will be a lot of objection to Hillary as the candidate because she is so much of a lightening rod. I think Edwards will be a competitor. Perhaps someone will emerge from the Democratic governors.
Gug
Do not see Bill Frist as a serious contender. Keep an eye on Lindsay Graham, from South Carolina or even Elizabeth Dole. Condi Rice's name has come into play, but that's kind of implausible to me, as well.
As for Hillary, she is exactly where she wants to be--and she knows she cannot win the south, and you ain't going to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave w/o the south.
John McCain could potentially be a strong candidate, but he faces these problems:
1. His age & health. He would be 72 in 2008 and 80 in 2016 (the potential end of his second term). He has had skin cancer, and lord knows what damage his years as a POW did to his body.
2. The continuing distrust of the Bush crowd. The feud between Bush's "people" and McCain's "people" has always been nastier than the bad blood between the two principals.
3. The continuing distrust of movement conservatives, now fueled by McCain's opposition to the FMA and some of Bush's tax cuts.
It's hard for me to imagine Hillary not getting the Democratic nomination if she really wants it.
Doesn't the fact that she's desperately personally unpopular, one might say hated, among a large segment of the population some of whom might possibly vote Democratic if they didn't hate our candidate make it unlikely that she'll be the nominee?
LizardBreath
Schwarzenegger would be my '08 pick, but I'd settle for Giuliani or McCain. If the Dems run another empty suit like Edwards against McCain or Giuliani, they're finished.
Solomon
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