Whether or not Bush made gains among rural and evangelical voters (and looking at county-by-county returns, especially in the South, it's hard to argue that he didn't do somewhat better in rural areas), it's clear that Kerry did not perform much better than Gore did. And Gore did terribly with those voters.
Most Democrats thought their 2004 nominee needed to do a little bit better in small-town America so he could win states like Missouri, Ohio and West Virginia. Earlier this year, with the economy sagging and with a disproportionate number of country boys dying in Iraq, it looked like Kerry might be able to improve on Gore's performance. But the Republicans were able to define Kerry as essentially foreign (in all meanings of the term) to the ways of Main Street.
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If the exit polls are to be believed, then Bush suffered horribly among small town voters in particular (moving from roughly 60-40 Bush in 2000 to 50-50 in 2004).
Analysis of county (or precinct) totals from 2000 and 2004 could be used to test this.
Any change in county by county returns should probably have the 3% national shift removed from it, however, if the rural trend is to be focused on.
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