The Catechism Gap

Following up on my earlier post about Catholic support for Obama, here is a table showing the Democratic vote for white Catholics and white Protestants in each of the Super Tuesday states where there were exit polls and where there were enough white Catholics to measure.  I focused on white Catholics to control for Clinton's heavy support among Latinos, most of whom are Catholics, and white Protestants to control for Obama's heavy support among African-Americans, most of whom are Protestant.  (All data gathered from CBS News exit polls).

	White Catholics			White Protestants
	Clinton	Obama	Difference	Clinton	Obama	Difference	Catechism Gap
AZ	61	33	28	55	34	21	3.5
CA	53	35	18	48	34	14	2
CT	59	39	20	41	55	-14	17
DE	61	32	29	57	40	17	6
GA	58	42	16	61	34	27	-5.5
IL	53	46	7	41	56	-15	11
MA	67	31	36	54	44	10	13
MO	50	46	4	56	40	16	-6
NJ	71	26	45	66	32	34	5.5
NY	65	31	34	57	40	17	8.5
TN	58	35	23	69	24	45	-11
Average							4

The table shows that the Catechism Gap is evident mostly in the East and the Midwest.  Obama actually ran better among white Catholics in GA, MO, and TN and only slightly behind in AZ and CA.  This suggests that other issues, such as race, age, ethnicity, or class might also be playing a role here.  Without having a fuller look at the exit polls, we don't know if white Catholics in these states are perhaps older or poorer than in the other states, and thus more likely to vote for Clinton on those lines.  On the other hand, racial conflict in these areas usually pitted Blacks against working class whites, most of whom were Catholics.  Outside of these areas, either racial divisions were not as acute (AZ and CA) or were between White Protestants and Blacks (MO, TN, and GA).

If the Catechism Gap is real, this could be a problem for Obama going into the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries.  Both states are culturally similar to the states where Obama ran worse among Catholics and both states have large numbers of Catholics.  In 2004 indicated that Catholics made up 30 percent of Democratic primary voters in Ohio and that Catholics make up 45-50 percent of adherents in Pennsylvania.