Sunday, January 27, 2008

Super-Duper Tuesday Update

Now that the South Carolina results are in, here's my update on how things look for some of the key caucuses and primaries on February 5:

Kansas (40 Delegates) Closed Caucus: Rumor has it that popular Governor Kathleen Sebelius is set to endorse Obama.

Arkansas (47 Delegates) Open Primary: Obvious Clinton territory.

Alabama (60 Delegates) Open Primary: If Obama gets the same support among blacks here that he got in South Carolina, he'll have a big advantage.

Connecticut (60 Delegates) Closed Primary: Next to Clinton's home in NY, but full of the upper-income, upper-educated professionals that have been strong for Obama. In addition, the dual endorsements of Caroline and Ted Kennedy will help him among Catholics, especially older voters who still idolize the Kennedy's. Clinton has the advantage here, but this could turn into a contest.

Colorado (71 Delegates) Closed Caucus: A new poll has Obama with a slight lead.

Tennessee (85 Delegates) Open Primary: I think the real question is whether Al Gore endorses. Now that Ted Kennedy has come out for Obama, Gore is the only Democratic heavyweight still on the sidelines. The perception among many that Bill Clinton's went way out of bounds with his attacks on Obama seems to have created a defining moment for many Democrats about the meaning and direction of their party. Does Gore want to stay neutral on this?

Missouri (88 Delegates) Open Primary: Clinton has the support of Dick Gephardt but Obama now has the endorsement of Senator Claire McCaskill.

Georgia (103 Delegates) Open Primary: Obama's support among black voters will crucial here.

Massachusetts (121 Delegates) Open Primary: Ted Kennedy's endorsement will be a big boost to Obama here.

New Jersey (127 Delegates) Closed Primary: Clinton's neighboring state so she should do well here.

Illinois (185 Delegates) Closed Primary: Obama's home state.

New York (280 Delegates) Closed Primary: Clinton's home state.

California (441 Delegates) Open Primary: As I've been saying all along, this will be the crucial contest. If one candidate is the clear winner, it will hard to stop him or her. Until now, I thought it difficult for Obama to win given his performance thus far among White and Latino voters. But his South Carolina victory gives him momentum and the Kennedy endorsement helps with both groups. Polls still show Clinton with a big lead, but this may become a real contest.


Jukka said...

you really think Obama could pull off California?

jjv said...

It strikes me that Gore's "base" is the college set and the bo-bo's who also like Obama. For his own continued relevance he should endorse Obama. She is ahead. There is no reason for him to be "objectively pro-Hillary."

Plus, I really think Gore understands what the Clinton's are and is appalled by it. He ought to strike to gain maximum news play for the Sunday shows and Monday news. If he waits he loses.