Scenario 1:
% of the Electorate | Obama % | Obama Performance | Clinton % | Clinton Performance | Edwards % | Edwards Performance | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
White/Asian/Other | 65 | 0.35 | 22.75 | 0.55 | 35.75 | 0.1 | 6.5 |
Latino | 25 | 0.25 | 6.25 | 0.7 | 17.5 | 0.05 | 1.25 |
Black | 10 | 0.7 | 7 | 0.25 | 2.5 | 0.05 | 0.5 |
Result | 36 | 55.75 | 8.25 |
A victory for Obama in this turnout scenario would require him to split the White/Asian/Other vote with Clinton 45-45, get at least 35 percent of the Latino vote, and 80 percent of the Black vote.
Scenario Two:
% of the Electorate | Obama % | Obama Performance | Clinton % | Clinton Performance | Edwards % | Edwards Performance | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
White/Asian/Other | 65 | 0.45 | 29.25 | 0.45 | 29.25 | 0.1 | 6.5 |
Latino | 25 | 0.35 | 8.75 | 0.6 | 15 | 0.05 | 1.25 |
Black | 10 | 0.8 | 8 | 0.15 | 1.5 | 0.05 | 0.5 |
Outcome | 46 | 45.75 | 8.25 |
Of course, different turnout scenarios will lead to different outcomes. For example, support for Obama may lead to a big increase in black turnout or perhaps Edwards will manage to grab a bigger share of the White vote from Clinton. Nonetheless, these estimates indicate that an Obama victory in California will be very tough.
Update: Sorry about the tables spilling over the right margin. I don't know how to avoid that. A reader wants to know if I factored in the open/closed nature of the Democratic primary, especially, as Kevin Drum points out, the Democratic primary is open while the Republican primary is closed. Given Obama's support among independents, this obviously helps him. It remains to be seen how much.
1 comment:
Thanks for gaming this out even though, as an Obama supporter, I would hope against hope that he can pull this out.
Kevin Drum just noted that the Democratic primary in Cali will be open, while the Republican primary will be closed. That's a glimmer of hope for me, particularly if independents in California like some kind words about Reagan (I have no idea if this is true, however).
Is the open/closed nature of the primary factored into this analysis?
Thanks.
PS: Btw, I can see your tables great in my RSS reader but in my web browser they spill over the right column, sadly.
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