Thursday, January 10, 2008

Super-Duper Tuesday Forecast

Hillary Clinton's surprise win in NH means that the Democratic contest will almost certainly go on until Super-Duper Tuesday on February 5. The winner on that date will be the presumptive nominee and there will immense pressure on the other candidate or candidates to call it quits in order to wrap up the nomination battle. With that in mind, here's a summary of the February 5th contests along with my take on some of the most important contests:

Alaska (18 Delegates) Closed Caucus

North Dakota (21 Delegates) Open Primary

Delaware (23 Delegates) Closed Primary: Closed primaries probably work to Clinton's advantage, but blacks make up 20 percent of Delaware's population and probably 40 percent or more of the Democratic primary voters. If Obama can swing over the black vote, he could be competitive here.

Idaho (23 Delegates) Open Caucus

Utah (29 Delegates) Open Primary

New Mexico (38 Delegates) Closed Caucus: In the unlikely event Bill Richardson endorses someone, that candidate would have an obvious advantage. If not, the advantage probably goes to Clinton since it seems that she has more support in the Hispanic community.

Kansas (40 Delegates) Closed Caucus: Obama's mother is a Kansas native and he may try to work that angle, but there aren't really enough delegates here for either campaign to give it much attention.

Arkansas (47 Delegates) Open Primary: Obvious Clinton territory.

Oklahoma (47 Delegates) Closed Primary

Alabama (60 Delegates) Open Primary: Obama needs to appeal to the black vote, though Clinton already has the support of the Alabama Democratic Conference, the black wing of the state party.

Connecticut (60 Delegates) Closed Primary: Next to Clinton's home in NY, but full of the upper-income, upper-educated professionals that have been strong for Obama.

Arizona (67 Delegates) Closed Primary: See New Mexico. Update: Janet Napolitano, Arizona's very popular governor, is endorsing Obama. This will be a big help.

Colorado (71 Delegates) Closed Caucus: The closed caucus probably helps Clinton, but Obama will have strong appeal in the suburbs and college towns like Boulder.

Tennessee (85 Delegates) Open Primary: Will Al Gore endorse? If he does, it helps not just in Tennessee, but pretty much everywhere else. If not, it all depends on Obama's strength among blacks.

Minnesota (88 Delegates) Open Caucus: Similar to Iowa so this should help Obama.

Missouri (88 Delegates) Open Primary: The open primary and a large black vote in St. Louis and Kansas City may help Obama but Clinton has the support of Dick Gephardt.

Georgia (103 Delegates) Open Primary: Again, Obama needs strong support in the black community, but John Lewis's endorsement of Clinton will hurt.

Massachusetts (121 Delegates) Open Primary: Likely Obama. He's been endorsed by Gov. Deval Patrick and, now, John Kerry. Plus, the state is awash in high-education, high-income liberals.

New Jersey (127 Delegates) Closed Primary: Clinton's neighboring state so she should do well here.

Illinois (185 Delegates) Closed Primary: Obama's home state.

New York (280 Delegates) Closed Primary: Clinton's home state.

California (441 Delegates) Open Primary: As I said in a previous post, this will probably be the crucial contest. Whoever wins California will likely win the most delegates on February 5th. Plus, the media will probably concentrate a disproportionate amount of attention here (what reporter wants to cover the North Dakota primary in February?). Both candidates have strong support in the Hollywood liberal community, though Obama has more appeal in the broader liberal/progressive community. The big question is whether he can make inroads in the Hispanic community. There's some question about whether Hispanics will embrace a black candidate, plus Clinton has the support of LA mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. On the other hand, Congressman George Miller just endorsed Obama, which some are interpreting as tantamount to an endorsement by Nancy Pelosi. This will help him in the Bay Area.

1 comment:

Mike said...

Congressman George Miller just endorsed Obama, which some are interpreting as tantamount to an endorsement by Nancy Pelosi. This will help him in the Bay Area.

I'm imagining all these Bay Area voters thinking 'I'm going to vote for Obama because I've been picking up secret signals that Nancy Pelosi has been sending through Congressman George Miller that she approves of him'.