Friday, January 11, 2008

Huckabee and Catholics, Part 3

The exit polls from New Hampshire actually asked about religious denomination. There are some odd categorizations, but it looks like Huckabee, as I suspected from the Iowa data, did very poorly among Catholics. Here's the percent support for Huckabee among varous religious groups:

Protestants: 12 Percent
Catholics: 7 Percent
Other Christian: 26 Percent

Given that Huckabee got 28 percent among self-described born-again/evangelicals, I would guess that many of them included themselves in the "Other Christian" category. As to why they would do this, I'm not sure. Nonetheless, this does seem clearer evidence that Huckabee runs poorly among Catholics. This may be a significant factor in the upcoming Michigan primary, where Catholics are by far the largest denomination and twice as large as evangelicals. Below is a graph of the religious breakdown of that state (courtesy of the invaluable and fascinating Association of Religion Data Archives):


On the other hand, the situation is reversed in South Carolina, where evangelicals are the dominant religious group.

South Carolina


DrDave said...

Some of the research I've done using questions similar to those asked on the exit poll revealed a similar issue. Somewhere I saw an explanation that many evangelicals do not like to be included in a category that usually includes fundamentalists. Many of my students who would be in the evangelical category also resist any type of label beyond "Christian." Students regularly tell me that their church is nondenominational, but it really is evangelical.

I live in Texas.

Anonymous said...

A lot of Catholics are democrats because of social issues. The following article talks about Catholics and immigration. Huckabee's strong stand on this may be why a large number Catholics did not vote for him.