Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Michigan Exit Poll Results

The results of the exit poll for the GOP primary in Michigan show how the immigration issue is really hurting John McCain.  McCain beat Romney by five points (35-30) among the 24 percent of GOP voters who want to offer illegal immigrants a path to citizenship.  He broke even (36-37) among those who favor a guest worker program.  Unfortunately for him, 48 percent of Republican voters want to deport all illegal aliens and Romney won that group overwhelmingly, 41 to 24.

The other interesting result is that McCain won those who are opposed to the war (36-29), but lost those who support the war (27-42).  Given that McCain has been such a strong supporter of the Iraq war, this is bit perplexing.  The most likely explanation is that staunchly conservative Republicans are the war's biggest supporters, but are also the most distrustful of McCain.  On the other hand, independents and stray Democrats are most opposed to the war, but most likely to admire McCain.

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