Thursday, October 13, 2005

Bottom Not Yet in Sight

From the latest Pew poll:

President George W. Bush’s poll numbers are going from bad to worse. His job approval rating has fallen to another new low, as has public satisfaction with national conditions, which now stands at just 29%. And for the first time since taking office in 2001, a plurality of Americans believes that George W. Bush will be viewed as an unsuccessful president.

About four-in-ten (41%) say that, in the long run, Bush will be an unsuccessful president, up from 27% in January and the highest percentage expressing that view since he took office. About a quarter (26%) believes Bush will be successful – down 10 points since January – while 30% say it is too early to tell.

The poll also has Bush's approval rating down to 38 percent. There are several interesting findings along with that result. First, there is no gender gap with men (39 percent) and women (38 percent) at equal levels of approval. Also, Bush's support is almost entirely restricted to his base of white, evangelical Southerners. By region, Bush gets 34 percent in the Northeast, 37 percent in the Midwest, and 36 percent in the West, but 42 percent in the South. If we were able to look at whites by region (Pew didn't supply those cross-tabs), my guess is that his support among white Southerners would be higher.

By party, Bush is relying almost solely on Republicans, who give him 81 percent approval. Democrats give him only 9 percent approval, while among Independents he gets 34 percent. That's higher among Independents than among Democrats, but very low. To put it another way, Bush is about as popular among Independents as Richard Nixon was with the general public just before he resigned.

The votes by religion are also interesting. Bush does poorly with non-Evangelical Protestants (39 percent), white Catholics (42 percent), and Seculars (24 percent). His only support is among Evangelical Protestants who give him 64 percent approval. As with the numbers on the South, my hunch is that if we looked only at white Evangelical Protestants, Bush's numbers would be much higher.

Here's the question: The survey was conducted from October 6-10 (Thursday-Monday). That means one day of respondents didn't know about the Miers pick, and almost all respondents had yet to think about the pick and the various reactions to it over the weekend. Now that conservative revolt over Miers is in full bloom, what will be the impact on Bush's poll numbers, especially among his only remaining base of support?

1 comment:

Bulworth said...

Bush's approval among white southerners is probably a good deal higher than the 42% he's getting in the South overall, if recent reports of Bush's 2% rating among African-Americans are any where's close to accurate.