Monday, November 15, 2004

People Who Will Never Be President

With the 2004 campaign finally ending, the 2008 campaign has finally begun. Naturally, pundits are floating one name after another. Some of those names -- Frist, Bush, Clinton -- may well end up on a monument or a stamp someday. But others will never make it. So here's my preliminary list of People Who Will Never Be President:

1. John Kerry.

Much to my surprise, Kerry actually does want to run again. Unfortunately for him, he's the only one dreaming of Kerry '08. While Kerry hasn't inspired the same vitriol that onetime nominees Al Gore and Michael Dukakis did, few people actually think he was a good candidate. At best, he tried hard and worked to overcome his limitations. At worst .... ugh. Other candidates -- Hillary, John Edwards, Evan Bayh, to name a few -- will pick up his consultants and fundraisers. And there is no identifiable "Kerry constituency" that will support him against all foes.

2. Rudy Giuliani

If Rudy was realistic, he would run for governor of New York in 2006. Instead, he has convinced himself that he can be elected president. He certainly could be elected; he might even make a good president. But to be elected, Rudy first needs to be nominated. And the Republican Party is not going to nominate a pro-choice (including partial-birth-abortion), pro-gay-rights (including domestic partner benefits for city employees), pro-gun-control, thrice-married, opera-lover for president. If nothing else, the South Carolina primary would wipe him out. Conservatives are starting to make their opposition clear. If the issues don't do it, his crossdressing will.

3. George Pataki

All of Rudy's problems, none of his assets. Could be Secretary of Transportation someday.

4. Mitt Romney

See 2 & 3.

5. Arnold Schwarzenegger

See 2, 3 & 4. Plus he's constitutionally ineligible. And he's got a ribald personal history that puts Bill Clinton's to shame.


Thomas said...

Mostly right. I think that if Rudy wants to run for president in '08, he should demonstrate that he can beat Hillary Clinton in NY in '06.

I think that Romney has a better chance than you suggest. The difference between Romney and Guiliani is that fewer people would think that Romney's conversion to social conservatism would be purely tactical. That is, I think most conservatives think of Romney as one of their own saying what he needs to say to get elected in MA, and that Romney is most conservative than he lets on. I don't think that's entirely accurate, but I think the story would sell. How well? Well, who are the other choices? A contest between John McCain, Rudy Guiliani and Mitt Romney doesn't leave conservatives very excited.

Anonymous said...

Richard, what's your take on Condoleezza Rice? Does anyone know if she's ever expressed interest?


Anonymous said...

Condi, rumor has it, was a legandarily poor provost at Stanford. If you can't manage a college faculty I think you'll have serious issues running a country.

dillon said...

1)John Kerry: He'll run again, but he'll lose to Al Gore.
2)Rudy: I agree, but you forgot adulterer
3)Pataki: totally agree
4)Romney: He'll be lucky to re-elected governor
5)Arnie: You're right, the gropenator will go over about as well as Rudy in the red states.

Anonymous said...

Bush, rumor has it, was a legendarily poor oil executive/baseball owner/governor of Texas. If you can't manage an oil company, a baseball team, OR a state, I think you'll have serious issues running a country.

but he still got elected.

Anonymous said...

What about Rudy running as a Democrat?

Anonymous said...

Let's see how Condi does running State.