Commenters on this blog have asked about two possibilities: Rudy Giuliani running for president as a Democrat and Condoleeza Rice running in '08. I think both are unlikely. Rudy spent much of 2004 campaigning hard for Bush and denouncing Kerry as a weakling. I think it would be very hard for Rudy to switch parties after that, even if he is closer to the Democrats on many issues.
Condi has four major problems as a presidential candidate:
1. She has never run for public office and apparently isn't all that conservative on issues apart from foreign policy. She has shown little interest in domestic politics.
2. She is a 50-year-old unmarried woman. While I won't engage in rumor-mongering about her sexuality (and such rumors seem unfounded anyway), it's hard to see a "family values" party nominating a bachelorette for president. ("Spinster" seems ill-suited for someone as stylish as Condi).
3. She has become so close to President Bush, that she has little image of her own. Although given Cheney's disinclination to seek the top job, Condi could fill the vice-presidential "designated successor" role.
4. Cabinet members tend not to make strong presidential candidates, due to their distance from electoral politics.
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Condi has shown virtually no political skills as NSA. She has, as is pointed out here, no history as a canidate for any office. Let's also not forget that she is a huge nerd. Her career path has been as an academic. Even her government service during the Reagan year's was academic.
With the disasterous exception of Woodrow Wilson, huge nerds don't get elected President. Ask Al Gore or John Kerry.
She has virtually no humanizing traits. Her hair never moves. At a Saturday matinee at the Georgtown Lowes,` there she was in jeans a sweater and her hair in that insane coif.
Not trying to be shallow, but the fact is, all of these things are strikes against her. She won't connect with the American people the way her boss does or the way Bill Clinton or Reagan did.
In fact, the only reason her name would even come up, and no Republican would admit this, is because she's black and she's a woman. She is the GOP's version of an affirmative action hire.
I couldn't see Condi Rice as #1 on a Republican ticket, but #2? Maybe. She has a great story to tell - growing up in segregated Birmingham, then rising through academia - but I don't think she can connect sufficiently with the electorate (her love of the NFL being about the only connection she's going to make to Joe and Mrs. Six-Pack) to be elected. Plus, all anyone knows about her politics is that she's incredibly loyal to the current president.
My hope is John McCain has built up enough capital supporting President Bush to at least get lukewarm support from the far right and to get the Republican nomination next time around. Condi Rice would be a good #2 for John McCain.
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