Monday, October 04, 2004

WaPo Poll

The new Washington Post poll has Bush up by 5 among LVs and by 3 among RVs. Palooka can breathe normally again.

3 comments:

danielj said...

Palooka may wish to view the CBS/NYT before exhaling. This poll appears to be the outlier.

Palooka said...

WaPo and the Pew poll, ;)

Oh, and Rasmussen.....

Hard to tell, but Newsweek and Gallup were over the weekend and oversampled Dems. That said, I don't really trust either of them.

danielj said...

Palooka - You've got it backawrds, at least for Newsweek. Their sample had 36% D 34% R. Compared to election norms, that actually underrepresents Dems. Unfortunately, I can't find the link, right now, but in 2000 the breakdown was was something like 39 D and 34 or 35 R. The huge leads for Bush that Gallup showed in the last few weeks has come in surveys where they had about 40 R and 33 D. Readjusting their totals to more realistic Party ID would have shown the race to be roughly tied all along.