ARG Poll Results

American Research Group has just released the results of an innovative panel survey of the presidential debate. Panel 1 was surveyed just prior to the debate and just after the debate. Panel 2 was surveyed just after the debate and 24 hours later. Panel 3 was surveyed just prior to the debate and 24 hours later. Here are the results:

Panel 1:

Pre-debate
Bush 48
Kerry 45

Debate +24
Bush 47
Kerry 47

Panel 2:

Post-debate
Bush 48
Kerry 45

Debate +24
Bush 47
Kerry 47

Panel 3:

Pre-debate
Bush 49
Kerry 44

Debate +24
Bush 46
Kerry 49

I found it interesting that panel 1 and 2 were exactly the same numbers, suggesting that the impact of the debate takes some time measure. Those who were asked about their choice immediately after the debate weren't any different than those who were asked just before. On the other hand, after 24 hours, they had both moved in exactly the same direction by exactly the same amount. One or both of two things could be going on here. First, respondents need time to assess all of the information from the debate before they make alter their choices. Second, people may alter their choices quickly, but they might not want to tell pollsters that they have for fear of looking indecisive or inconsistent.