Thursday, October 21, 2004

KY Senate Race

The latest Garin-Hart-Yang poll shows Mongiardo in a 43-43 tie with Bunning, gaining 8 points in just the past week alone.  Mongiardo has picked up endorsements from both the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Louisville Courier-Journal -- the state's two largest newspapers.

I think Bunning is going down.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yeah Bunning didnt even show up to his own debate last night,
This guy is surely losing it, and this could make for a 5th Dem pick up,
IL, OK, CO, Alaska and now Kentucky are all pickups in my opinion for the Dems - although they will be balanced out by a loss in GA and South Carolina at least, if not in NC and LA.
Cheers,
Mo

Palooka said...

OK, CO, and AK are all close elections, so it's wishful thinking on your part, Mo. My ojbective opinion is the Republicans are positioned reasonably well to keep or increase their majority, but if Kerry wins, he could bring the Senate with him, though probably only 50-49-1.

Devo said...

While CO, AK, KY, and OK are all very close, objectively, they are all also leaning slightly Dem (with the Dem leading CO, AK, AND OK in most of the recent polls and KY currently tied, but with serious MO to Mongiardo). NC at this point is a straight tossup, SC leans Red, GA is solidly Red ...

Louisiana could be a very interesting race. There is definitely a decent chance that its December runoff could decide the control of the Senate. While it definitely leans Blue, it's a conservative Blue and there might be many voters who, with a President-elect Kerry, would find it appealing to elect a divided government.

If the election is held today, I see no chance of the Repbulicans holding more than a one seat edge and believe that the Dems should be considered slight favorites to retake the Senate. If they don't, and Bush wins, I'm setting the over/under at six weeks before a certain North Eastern Republican Senator switches parties.

Anonymous said...

As close as OK, CO and Alaska are, I think the CO will go Dem for sure, b/c Coors has alienated the right with his GLBT support while he was CEO; Alaska, well, Nepotism never pays off; and OK - Coburn dug his own grave - so there alone, I am willing to bet 3 Dem pickups plus IL = 4 sure pickups, and now even KY = 5;
at worst right now the Senate will be 50/50, I don't see the GOP making any agains except for GA, and SC, but 10 days to go!!!

Anonymous said...

As close as OK, CO and Alaska are, I think the CO will go Dem for sure, b/c Coors has alienated the right with his GLBT support while he was CEO; Alaska, well, Nepotism never pays off; and OK - Coburn dug his own grave - so there alone, I am willing to bet 3 Dem pickups plus IL = 4 sure pickups, and now even KY = 5;
at worst right now the Senate will be 50/50, I don't see the GOP making any agains except for GA, and SC, but 10 days to go!!!

Palooka said...

Salazar has a good shot of winning Colorado. My intuition tells me he won't, but I think that's tinged by my hope that he doesn't win the seat. Objectively, I think it can go either way.

I just have to say I think all of these predictions are really just the manifestations of your hopes--everywhere is leaning Dem, yada, yada, yada. Coors didn't alienate the Conservative base. I didn't vote for him in the primaries because I was uncertain of his commitment to public service. I think many others, while not negative about him, felt he hadn't proved himself enough to be considered for the US Senate. It wasn't a particularly ugly primary campaign for Coors, thus my prime concern is not how the gay issue will play, but rather how his background and personality will appeal to rural Colorado voters.

Palooka said...

The newest poll at RCP has bunning up by 15 points. Alaska is narrow lead. Colorado is pretty much even, if the polls are correct. I really don't get all this Dem optimism? I'd honestly take the Rep position in each of these states of the Dem, but many of them are very close, and can conceivably go either way.

Devo said...

The Coors name is very devisive in Colorado. While many are dependent on the family business for their livelihood, many rural communities have been devistated by the brewer.

Coors undertakes a number of ethically questionable farming practices - such as salting the clouds and using specificly modified seed - that can be extremely problematic for neighboring farmers. All told, his name is an impediment in the rural part of the state. Add to this the fact that Salazar is from the rural south (where my grandparents happen to be from) and is hispanic, as many from the area are and Salazar should play quite well rurally.

I am a Democrat, and I can't deny a desire to see things through Democratic optimism, but the recent polls have consistently shown Dem leads in CO, AK, and OK - and it's hard to predict how KY will play, but it certainly doesn't give a whole lot of reason for optimism among Reps. I'm doing my best to remain objective.

Devo said...

That SUSA KY poll is interesting. The main difference between that and the GHY poll two days earlier is the undecideds - who all broke to Bunning. It seems that SUSA was pushing much harder on leaners - and, as one might expect in such a heavily red state, they went red. It seems pretty likely that they're willing to consider someone else, though.

Devo said...

I wish I could edit my post instead of just adding another one.

That SUSA poll was also conducted before Bunning left Mongiardo debating himself last week and he declined the Meet the Press invite.

It'll be interesting to see how the Rotary Club appearance plays. It's clear that Bunning can still speak in complete sentances - but is that really enough for the voters of Kentucky? (That's not a rhetorical question - it really might be)