Saturday, October 02, 2004

Kerry Pulls Ahead

The new Newsweek poll has Kerry pulling out into a statistically insignificant lead over Bush, 47-45. W/o Nader, it's 49-46. Take it away, Palooka.


Anonymous said...

What interests me most is the streak of authoritatian disdain for fair democratic competition that can be seen in the tricks played by Rove, Cheney, Delay, Hastert and their ilk. What will they do in response to a renewed Kerry surge? Will they confine themselves, in the midst of panicky rage, to the usual fake terror alerts? In response to some vile tactics, I just hope that someone in the press has scooped the final National Guard evidence on Bush. Over to you, Palooka.

melissabass said...

If the Newsweek poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 pts, then there is a 75% chance that Kerry is actually ahead of Bush -- 85% without Nader.

I'm not a quant person, but I had this drilled into me in stats class and was reminded by a post on Kevin Drum's blog (he posted the probability chart on Aug. 19). It's a handy device, especially when so many polls are so close. Instead of being stuck saying the race is a statistical tie, you can answer the real question: how likely is it that whoever is ahead is really ahead? Who knows how long it will last, but there is a BETTER than even chance that Kerry is actually ahead, at least in that poll. . . . It doesn't happen often, but occasionally the "science" in political science provides some useful information :-)

Palooka said...

I think it's clear Kerry lost on subtance and made several critical errors. Nuclear fuel to Iran, global test, opposing bunker busters, flip flopping on if Iraq is a mistake, etc.

However, the spin is certainly the debate was a postive for Kerry. Problem is, there is one VP debate, and two more presidential debates. Both Cheney and Bush can POUND those mistakes into the public's consciousness again and again. So, I'm not about ready to declare the debate a positive for Kerry.

BTW, the Newsweek poll shows some odd changes in party ID, the REAL cause of the shift. Bush's support among Dems didn't faulter. Neither did his support among independents, all that changed is the number of Dems and Republicans responding. A new LA Times poll shows his favorability actually ticked upward. Gallup's poll shows Bush didn't "win" the debate and looked polish, but that he DID connect to voters and project sincerity and toughness.

Palooka said...

More on Newsweek's bizarre results (11 point swing in Party ID).