Wednesday, September 22, 2004
As one commenter pointed out, the Zogby state polls are done interactively through the web, unlike traditional phone polls. Perhaps Zogby's methodology is wrong, but I think this is a reasonable attempt to avoid some of the problems of phone polls--non-responses, more cell phones, etc. And the results of these interactive polls are not wildly different from those of traditional phone polls. For example, look at today's ARG polls of all 50 states. The have the national race tied at 47-46 for Bush, and the electoral college is about the same. Bush and Kerry each have leads outside the MOE in states with 133 and 132 electoral votes, respectively. When you toss in leads within the MOE, Kerry has 270, Bush has 253, and WI and WV are dead-even. Are these polls correct? I have no reason to think that they are any less correct than any other polls with similar timing and methodolgy. Perhaps they overstate Kerry's totals or perhaps Bush's. I don't know. But they do reinforce my impression that this is a close race, nationally and in the Electoral College, and that neither candidate has put this thing away. If anyone is so sure of the outcome, then put your money where you mouth is and give me odds.