Monday, August 09, 2004

Popular Vote Redux

The Keyes madness makes it even more likely that the Democrats will actually win the national "popular vote" for the U.S. Senate even if they don't actually regain control. Democrats will surely win landslide victories in California, New York and Illinois, three of the four largest states to have Senate elections this year. (Gore's popular vote victory was due to huge margins in those same states -- 1.3 million in California, 1.7 million in New York, 570,000 in Illinois). Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina should have fairly close contests. The only large states where Republicans should win easily are Ohio and Georgia. But the GOP could keep control of the Senate through their strength in smaller states.

This wouldn't be the first time that the "wrong" party won control of the Senate -- in 1980, the Democrats outpolled the Republicans but lost control, in 1986, the reverse happened. But how would Democrats react if they won the popular vote for both the Senate and the Presidency, but still lost?

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