Friday, August 22, 2008
Georgia and the Tightening of the Polls: Coincidence?
I realize that this is entirely circumstantial, but it certainly seems as though the polls began to tighten when Russia invaded Georgia. In fact, Obama's average lead over McCain (based on polls collected at RealClearPolitics) since the invasion is 1.3 points. In the same number of days before the invasion, his lead averaged 3.9 points. When international affairs dominate the news, Republicans benefit. It's simple issue ownership.
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In this case, Republicans benefit because John McCain is seen by most Americans as a steady, decisive hand on the tiller of American foreign policy while Barack Obama is seen as a guy learning the names for each sail and piece of rigging. A guy whose major pronouncements on foreign policy are that he's going to invade Pakistan to get Bin Laden and he's going to sit down with madmen from Iran and elsewhere rightly gives most American voters pause.
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