Tuesday, January 08, 2008

New Hampshire Reax

You really can't overstate what a huge win this is for Hillary Clinton. In the run-up to today's primary, the expectations for her couldn't have been lower. The Democratic race is clearly not anywhere near over. Next up is Michigan (January 18), but as I said previously, Clinton is on the ballot, but Obama is not. She'll probably win there and that will help, but it won't mean all that much. Then comes Nevada (January 19) and South Carolina (January 26). There was some talk before tonight that Clinton would concede both states to Obama and concentrate on Super Tuesday on February 5. That won't happen now. If Clinton can win both states, that will really put Obama on the ropes going into Super Tuesday. My guess is that Obama will concentrate on South Carolina as his best chance for a win. Look for that contest to be real fight.

On the Republican side, McCain also had a big comeback and he's now back in contention. This loss was a big one for Romney, but it doesn't look like it will be fatal. He's got the money to keep competing and the next state is Michigan where the Romney name (his father was governor there in the 1960s) still carries some weight. On the other hand, McCain also has support there, having won it against Bush in 2000. As for Huckabee, he needs to focus on winning South Carolina and then parlaying a victory there into a win in Florida on January 29.

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