Delegate Math

Marc Ambinder has an excellent description of the complex calculations campaigns need to take in the hunt for delegates. I didn't realize this, but whether a congressional district has an odd or an even number of delegates matters. Unless in the unlikely event that one candidate wins in a landslide, districts with an even number of delegates are likely to allocate them 50-50. On the other hand, districts with an odd-number of delegates will give the eventual winner an extra delegate. That fact leads to these sorts of considerations:

Even though some advisers concede that Hillary Clinton will probably win California, Barack Obama's campaign will heavily target a number of large-and-small, odd-and-even congressional districts in the Bay Area (think Oakland, Berkeley, Marin County) because Democrats there tend to be more educated and younger -- and black -- exactly the demographic profile Obama has used to success in earlier states. But wait -- if you're in charge of Obama's California spending, do you spent, say, $100,000 extra in the 6th Congressional District, which comprises Marin County and Somona County north of San Fransisco? It allocates an even number of delegates -- six. Unless there's a landslide, both Obama and Clinton will get 3, each.

Why not spend that money trying to beat Clinton in the 7th congressional district across the bay -- Solano County and parts of Contra Costa counties, where the congressman, George Miller, has already endorsed Obama? CD 7 allocated 5 delegates, an an extra effort there might give Obama one extra delegate

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