Even though some advisers concede that Hillary Clinton will probably win California, Barack Obama's campaign will heavily target a number of large-and-small, odd-and-even congressional districts in the Bay Area (think Oakland, Berkeley, Marin County) because Democrats there tend to be more educated and younger -- and black -- exactly the demographic profile Obama has used to success in earlier states. But wait -- if you're in charge of Obama's California spending, do you spent, say, $100,000 extra in the 6th Congressional District, which comprises Marin County and Somona County north of San Fransisco? It allocates an even number of delegates -- six. Unless there's a landslide, both Obama and Clinton will get 3, each..
Why not spend that money trying to beat Clinton in the 7th congressional district across the bay -- Solano County and parts of Contra Costa counties, where the congressman, George Miller, has already endorsed Obama? CD 7 allocated 5 delegates, an an extra effort there might give Obama one extra delegate
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Marc Ambinder has an excellent description of the complex calculations campaigns need to take in the hunt for delegates. I didn't realize this, but whether a congressional district has an odd or an even number of delegates matters. Unless in the unlikely event that one candidate wins in a landslide, districts with an even number of delegates are likely to allocate them 50-50. On the other hand, districts with an odd-number of delegates will give the eventual winner an extra delegate. That fact leads to these sorts of considerations: