Following up on my recent post about Hillary Clinton's poor showing against Rudy Giuliani in "Purple" states (those won by Bush or Kerry by a margin of less than 5 points), I thought I should also mention a series of polls by Survey USA with head to head match-ups between Clinton and Giuliani in various states. Contrary to my earlier post, these polls show Clinton running very well against Giuliani in key states:
Minnesota (11/18) Clinton 49-43/Kerry 51-48
Wisconsin (11/17) Clinton 49-42/ Kerry 50-49
Iowa (11/16) Clinton 47-43/ Bush 50-49
Ohio (11/15) Clinton 49-44/ Bush 51-49
Missouri (11/14) Giuliani 45-44/ Bush 53-46
Florida (11/1) Clinton 49-45/ Bush 52-47
Virginia (10/27) Clinton 47-46/ Bush 54-45
Oregon (10/26) Clinton 50-45/ Kerry 51-47
Washington (10/23) Clinton 50-43/ Kerry 53-47
New Mexico (10/22) Giuliani 48-47/ Bush 50-49
These polls suggest that Clinton would win all of the states won by Kerry and pick up Iowa (7 EV), Ohio (20 EV), and Florida (27 EV), and Virginia (13 EV).
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I note that in each of the states you list here either the 2d amendment or pro-life issues are big winners for the GOP. Giuliani will have no compelling claim on the votes of those voters leaving Hillary (or at minimum a third party) free to poach the pro-life,but economic liberals of Ohio and Minnessota and the libertarian leaning folks in the West.
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