Rove's Kool-Aid

Karl Rove is claiming that President Bush isn't in all that much political trouble since his personal approval numbers are higher than his job approval number. According to the Washington Post:

Rove said that Bush's likeability ratings are far higher than his approval ratings. "There is a disconnect" because of the Iraq conflict, Rove told the American Enterprise Institute. . . .

He said that Bush's likeability, his personal approval ratings, were in the 60s in some polls. "Job approval is lower. And what that says to me is that people like him, they respect him, he's somebody they feel a connection with, but they're just sour right now on the war. And that's the way it's going to be."

The latest CBS/NYT poll has Bush' job approval at 31 percent, but his personal approval is only 29 percent.

As for Rove's comment that Bush would be popular but for the Iraq War, that's like saying that if it weren't for the Alps, Switzerland would be flat.

Update: Charles Franklin at Political Arithmetik has a more thorough analysis of Bush favorability vs. job approval numbers. As you can see in the graph below, there's no evidence for Rove's claim. Bush's favorability numbers are a bit higher than his job approval numbers, but no where near the 60s.