Congressional Polls and Indycrats

In Gallup's latest poll (subscription required) on next year's midterm election, there's a question on whether people prefer a candidate who supports or opposes President Bush and how strongly they feel about that preference. They also compare that to the results from 1994. As tables below show, both Republicans and Democrats have become more polarized since 1994. In 1994, 68 percent of Republicans felt strongly about wanting a candidate who would oppose President Clinton, while 57 percent of Democrats felt strongly about wanting a candidate who would support him. Now, 70 percent of Republicans feel strongly that they want a candidate who will support President Bush, while 85 percent of Democrats feel strongly that they want a candidate who opposes President Bush. So in addition to increased polarization, the Democrats are more unified in opposing Bush than the Republicans are in supporting him.

Furthermore, Independents have shifted strongly against Bush. In 1994, there was an 11 point gap between Independents who felt strongly that they wanted a candidate who would oppose Clinton and Independents that felt strongly that they wanted a candidate who would support him (31-20). Now, the gap is 42 points between Independents who feel that want a candidate who oppose Bush and those that feel strongly that they want a candidate who will support him (51-9). It's still a long way until the election, but this support's Ruy Teixeira's thesis that Independents and Democrats are merging into a block of "Indycrats."

1994
Want a Candidate Who:	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
Supports Clinton (feels strongly)	4	20	57
Supports Clinton (don't feel strongly)	5	15	18
Oppose Clinton (don't feel strongly)	14	13	6
Oppose Clinton (feel strongly)	68	31	10
No opinion	9	21	9

2005
Want a Candidate Who:	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
Supports Bush (feels strongly)	70	9	1
Supports Bush (don't feel strongly)	15	11	2
Oppose Bush (don't feel strongly)	4	10	9
Oppose Bush (feel strongly)	7	51	85
No opinion	4	9	3