Wednesday, March 23, 2005
Iraq v. Gay Marriage
I've been mucking around with the preliminary Nation Election Study (NES) data and my quick findings suggest that the Iraq issue was more important for Bush's victory than was gay marriage. Those who said that the Iraq war was worth the cost went for Bush by a margin of 92-8 (!), but those who said that they opposed gay marriage only went for Bush 63-37. I also ran a larger probit model to control for party identification, ideology, income, education, race, and sex. Controlling for these factors, Bush had a 73 point advantage (86-13) among those who thought the Iraq war was worth the cost, but only a 10 point advantage (55-45) among those opposed to gay marriage.