Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Donkey Dying?

It seems to me that the results of the election raise some serious questions about the "Emerging Democratic Majority" thesis put forward by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira. The short version of their thesis is that women, minorities, and urban professionals and white working class voters were combining to give Dems a majority. I think the election put that on hold. Bush made major gains among women, Hispanics, and in urban areas (he actually lost ground among rural voters). On the other hand, Bush did relatively worse among the highest educated voters, gaining only 1 point among college graduates and staying the same among those with post-grad study.

Also, for all the talk about cultural issues in this election, class actually showed up stronger than last time. In 2000, the difference in the Bush vote between the poorest voters (<$15K) and the wealthiest voters (>$100K) was 17 points (37% to 54%). In this election, the gap was 22 points (36% to 58%).

1 comment:

MWS said...

Maybe the problem is that Judis and Teixera make the same assumption all liberals seem to make: that it's ok for the upper classes and liberals to vote against their economic interest on the basis of values, but not ok for the lower economic classes. Humans are not simplay economic animals, despite what economists say. And really, we admire rich, Hollywood types for voting values; shouldn't we have more admiration for the struggling middle class voters that set aside their self-interest to vote in favor of what they perceive to be univeral values?