Monday, November 22, 2004

Does the Culture War Continue?

A new study of party identification by the National Annenberg Election Survey sure makes it look like cultural issues loomed large in 2004. The study compares all 67,777 (!) respondents to the 2003-04 study to all 44,877 respondents in 1999-2000. Republicans slightly narrowed the party identification gap with Democrats from 33.7%D - 29.9% R to 34.6% D - 31.8% R. Republicans gained among most demographic groups, but most strikingly among the more culturally conservative ones:

+6 among white evangelicals (+7 among evangelical women)
+4 among those with a HS diploma or less
+4 among married women
+4 in the South

Democrats, by contrast, gained strength in their base and among more culturally liberal voters:

+4 among women 18-29
+4 among union-household voters
+ 3 among college-educated voters
+3 among African-American women
+3 among men 18-29
+3 in the Midwest

Of course, many of these are long-term trends -- most notably the GOP growth among evangelicals and in the South.

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