Jack Pitney makes a good point below that we are know is the stage of making sense of what happened in the debate. So far, it seems to be very pro-Kerry. A quick scan of the network news tonight showed lots of references polls showing a Kerry victory, and probably even better for Kerry, lots of coverage of Bush's poor demeanor.
On the other hand, the biggest shoe has yet to drop--SNL. As Jack points out, SNL's skewering of Gore in 2000 ("laahk box") was devastating for him. Gore's handlers even made him watch the skit to show his poor performance. He then overcompensated by being totally passive in the second debate. He did better in the third debate, but by then it didn't help much.