Just when I was ready to call the election for Kerry (high turnout, low Nader vote, Bush's inability to crack 50%), along comes Osama. I think no matter what Kerry says, this has to help Bush, if only by placing terrorism first in voters' minds.
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Philip Klinkner:
The Unsteady March: The Rise and Decline of Racial Equality in America
Midterm: The Elections of 1994 in Context
The Losing Parties: Out-Party National Committees, 1956-1993
Steve Teles:
Whose Welfare? AFDC and Elite Politics
Jack Pitney:
The Art of Political Warfare
Congress' Permanent Minority?
Jacob Hacker:
The Road to Nowhere: The Genesis of President Clinton's Plan for Health Security
The Divided Welfare State: The Battle Over Public and Private Social Benefits
Paul Frymer:
Uneasy Alliances: Race and Party Competition in America
David Lublin:
The Paradox of Representation: Racial Gerrymandering and Minority Interests in Congress
The Republican South : Democratization and Partisan Change
Stephen K. Medvic
Political Consultants in U.S. Congressional Elections (Ohio State University Press 2001)
Shades of Gray:Â Perspectives on Campaign Ethics (Brookings Institution Press 2002)
Guide to Political Campaigns in America (CQ Press 2005)
The Unsteady March: The Rise and Decline of Racial Equality in America
Midterm: The Elections of 1994 in Context
The Losing Parties: Out-Party National Committees, 1956-1993
Steve Teles:
Whose Welfare? AFDC and Elite Politics
Jack Pitney:
The Art of Political Warfare
Congress' Permanent Minority?
Jacob Hacker:
The Road to Nowhere: The Genesis of President Clinton's Plan for Health Security
The Divided Welfare State: The Battle Over Public and Private Social Benefits
Paul Frymer:
Uneasy Alliances: Race and Party Competition in America
David Lublin:
The Paradox of Representation: Racial Gerrymandering and Minority Interests in Congress
The Republican South : Democratization and Partisan Change
Stephen K. Medvic
Political Consultants in U.S. Congressional Elections (Ohio State University Press 2001)
Shades of Gray:Â Perspectives on Campaign Ethics (Brookings Institution Press 2002)
Guide to Political Campaigns in America (CQ Press 2005)
10 comments:
I'm not convinced that Osama showing up alive and as insane as ever really helps Bush's case. It simply highlights Bush's failure to capture or kill him AND destroy his terrorist network. Beyond that the election is on Tuesday. It's Friday. Real people (unlike us nerds...though I am drinking right now) don't really pay much attention to the news until the start of the next week. Essentially Osama just got buried in the news cycle.
Palooka you should check out the polling data at Slate...they actually keep a nice list of a number of polls and crete an agregate that as of today had Kerry ahead. I know they are lying Dems too. So am I. See I'm lying right now. Or am I...hmmm..It's so hard to tell as lying is an inherent part of being a Dem.
I don't think the bin Laden tape is going to push things too much one way or another. Most "likely" voters and new registrants have already made up their minds about who to vote for and nothing short of a major attack is going to change minds at this stage of the election.
By the way, all those polling numbers and their "likely" voter models are about as good as the Magic 8 Ball sitting on my desk. If nothing else this last month has been absolutely hilarious for all the obsessing about temples of numbers built upon foundations of faulty methodology.
ObL could break either way but only marginally; on one hand he could re-focus a few undecided minds away from their lack of health insurance at either of their two low-paying jobs back on al-Qaeda or it could drive home the unspinnable fact that three years after 9/11, Osama is still video-quality healthy, i.e. not "brought to justice."
For you Republicans hanging around, if Bush gets elected or otherwise re-appointed, enjoy your last four years in the White House for a long time. If I were you, I'd be praying for a Kerry victory because there's going to be some serious bills come due during this next four years and whomever is in power, personal and party, is going to pay for it with their electoral margins in 2008.
~Patrick
Just to put a different spin on the ObL tape-- It might just be that The Evil One WANTS Bush to win the election. He might need Bush as a strong American Icon to mobilize his Jihadists. Having Kerry win the election might be a "non-starter" for ObL's minions. If bin Laden thinks that this tape will actually hurt Bush, then he isn't too smart!!
My initial reaction was that this plays badly for Bush. Think about the two major news stories right now. We failed to lock down 380 tons of powerful explosives (and the new video evidence of it) and Osama's still out there. I don't think this makes Bush very good.
If Kerry wins, I think the analysis will point to this last week as a major reason why. In a race this tight, neither side can afford to make a single mistake, especially not this late. Bush/Rove mishandled the news of the explosives from the start, and they've continued to do so. Ignoring the video of the explosives for a moment, there's no reason why that should have been such a major story on Wednesday, with Bush not even commenting on it until then. Neither side can afford that kind of mishandling right now. It might be enough to make the difference. Or I might be wrong. Tuesday (hopefully) will tell.
Why does this have to be a plus for Bush? The way I see it is that this reminds everyone that he failed to get bin Laden. Remember Tora Bora.
Budding democracy in Iraq? Palooka, you are such a touching example of the "quiet American." Living on your pathetic illusions , along with that pseudo-philosopher, Belmont Club. Both of you would have been telling us about "budding democracy" in Saigon under General Theiu in 1970. Eight marines were killed today for Bush's illusion and yours. Thousands of soldiers are recorded for memory on the Vietnam Memorial. Did democracy in Vietnam "bud" for them? Do not try to change the world until you understand a little of it beyond Dubuque.
The previous poster is a touching example of the Limousine Liberal who implicitly argues that Arabs, Muslims, Turks, Afghans, etc. are so ignorant and uncivilized that they are not capable of democratic governments.
And I find it amazing that he/she uses Vietnam as an example of a failed American effort to spread Democracy when the same guy who is now demoralizing our troops and encouraging the enemy in Iraq for political gain helped lose the Vietnam war by demoralizing our troops and encouraging the enemy for political gain.
To quote John Kerry, “Wake up America!”
Solomon Wolfson
"there will not be a lasting democracy in any of these countries when you have an intolerant religion".
So does that mean we should nuke the south for fostering evangelical christinaity? If you want to look for intolerant religions you need look no further than you're own town. That's why I'm an Episcopalian. No rules mean = exra tolerant...sort of.
And Solomon don't forget the Russian's, the limo libs think they can't handle democracy either. Oh wait...they can't.
R.W. Apple has an article in the Times today suggesting that in fact, as many of us have posted in this thread, Osama showing up on Friday hasn't moved the needle in the election.
Man, his endorsement is worth about as much as Al Gore's these days.
Solomon and My point: "Quiet Americans" all, heads filled with murderous fantasies in pursuit of ideals, eager to proclaim middle-class democracies emerging in societies dominated for millenia by tribes, sects, and clans. John Updike captured you perfectly in the interior monologue of his character, Harry Angstrom: "Beneath her(America's) patient bombers paradise was possible." Happy Reading in Greene and Updike!
not a limo liberal,but a conservative isolationist.
I thought there might be a chance you were a Buchanan conservative. In that case, I respect your opinion.
You actually have one.
The same cannot be said for the Democrats who supported Clinton's unilateral dictator-toppling and nation-building in the 1990s and have now suddenly become isolationists when a Republican occupies the White House.
If Clinton was in office now, removed Saddam, and was trying to help the Iraqis create a democratic government, there would be 90% bipartisan support. And the terrorists wouldn't have a candidate to endorse in the US presidential election.
Solomon
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