Thursday, October 07, 2004

EV Prediction

My prediction is 322 in favor of Kerry (and generously assuming all of Colorado's votes go to Bush). What's the prize for this bet?


Anonymous said...

Professor Ray C Fair's econometric model shows Bush with 57.5% of the popular vote (2.5% standard error)

The Iowa Electronic Markets show Bush with 52%+ percent of the popular vote. puts Bush's share of the vote at 53% to 55%. puts Bush's electoral count at about 280.'s model shows Bush with 370(!) electoral votes.

Online Betting Guide (.uk) links to British bookies giving short odds on the Republicans and long odds for the Democrats.

I'll take your bet.

Dorian Warren said...

That's great that all of those sites and Ray Fair say otherwise. They don't have a clue of what's been happening on the ground though. Remember, it's not about the popular vote, but about 17 states. And for those interested, my count is based on a modified "Retro vs. Metro" hypothesis.

Anonymous said...

Sounds like you're game for a bet.

Anonymous said...

Sorry...meant to continue previous entry but got sidetracked.

How about, "I bet you that Bush will either win 280 Electoral Votes or at least 52% of the popular vote?"