Tuesday, June 08, 2004

More Polls . . .

The latest Gallup poll has some interesting results from its state-by-state breakdowns. Gallup breaks them down into Blue, Red, and Purple states, corresponding to the margin of victory in 2000. The results are in the table below:

(Bush or Gore<=5%)
w/o Nader+20-4+5
2000 Results+15-160

As the table shows, Kerry is running as well as Gore did in the Blue states and a bit ahead of him in the Purple states. Bush, however, is running significantly behind his 2000 numbers in the Red states.

This seems a bit odd, since Kerry seems to be doing better in the Red states than in the Purple states. Perhaps this is a result of the Bush campaign focusing their attacks in the Purple states and thereby holding down Kerry's margin there. It might also suggest that many Red state voters will eventually come home to Bush, thereby picking up his national margins.

No comments: