Monday, May 10, 2004
I was just looking over the state by state polls at DC Political Report. Of course, these need to be taken with a grain of salt this early in the race, but the results are intriguing nonetheless. Right now, most states are leaning in the same direction that they went in 2000. But there are exceptions. One state for Gore, Wisconsin, now has a Bush lead beyond the margin of error. No Bush 2000 states show a lead for Kerry. Four Bush states (AR, FL, NH, and OH) with 57 electoral votes are too close to call. Seven Gore states (CA, OR, WA, NM, IA, MI, and PA) with 123 electoral votes are too close to call. These state polls are often dicey and events on the ground can change things quickly, but it's interesting that with Bush and Kerry neck and neck in the popular vote nationally, the state polls suggest a shift toward Bush.