Tuesday, January 27, 2004

Quick thoughts on NH:

1. 14 points is a big win for Kerry.

2. Has a Massachusetts Dem ever lost the NH primary? Kerry, Tsongas, Dukakis, and JFK all won. Ted Kennedy lost in 1980, but he was running against an incumbent president.

3. This, on the heels of Iowa, is a big loss for Dean. I'm having a hard time thinking of two states (other than VT) more favorable to Dean's campaign than Iowa and New Hampshire. If he can't win either of them, where does he win? Plus, he had plenty of money in both states and now that will be in short supply.

4. Edwards was below expectations, but he will claim (assuming he actually beats Clark) that he did the best of any candidate from a non-contiguous state.

5. Even if he ends up beating Edwards, Clark took a real hit. He had the state to himself for the last month, he had money, and high polls until last week. He blew it all.

6. SC will be the Thunderdome for Clark and Edwards--"Two men enter--one man leave."

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