Sunday, January 18, 2004

The DM Register Iowa poll is out with these results:

Kerry 26%
Edwards 23%
Dean 20%
Gephardt 18%

This seems to confirm the Zogby tracking polls showing surges for Kerry and Edwards. With the candidates so close, the race will probably come down to second choices. As I mentioned in my earlier post, in many caucuses, some candidates won't make the 15% viability threshold and their supporters will be forced to switch to other candidates. The DM Register poll doesn't ask about second choices, but it does have favorable/unfavorable ratings. Presumably the candidates with the lowest favorability will have fewer second choice voters. And that's bad new for Dean since his unfavorables are significantly higher than the other candidates: 35% versus 22 for Gephardt, 15 for Kerry, and 14 for Edwards.

No comments: