Well, I've decided to take the leap and start a blog. I suppose that this is the pinnacle of hubris and ego--thinking that anyone might care about my thoughts and observations on things. On the other hand, what makes the Safires, Krugmans, Wills, and Dowds of this world so important?

--Did anyone see the story about lightning striking the set of Mel Gibson's move about the passion of Christ? For the second time!!?? I'm an empirical social scientist, so I'll let one strike slide as coincidence, but not two. What are the odds of this happening? This movie must be really bad in order to get God that upset. Remember, Hollywood gave Roman Polanski an Oscar, and yet God did nothing--unless you count Arnold's election as governor of CA as some form of divine punishment.

--Since I study American politics, people are always asking me about the upcoming presidential election. I haven't really focused on it, but my sense is that the Democrats are likely headed for a drubbing. Not only is it more likely than not that the economy will improve over the coming year, but for all the worries about current situation in Iraq, I just don't see the Democrats being able to beat Bush on the foreign policy issue. I also think Howard Dean would probably do the worst of any of the major contenders. In 1972, Republicans tarred George McGovern as the AAA candidate--acid, amnesty, and abortion. I have the strong feeling that next year, Republicans will do everything they can to make Dean into the SSS candidate--socialism, sodomy, and surrender.