tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5990055.post8734643152261958495..comments2024-01-26T01:52:53.198-05:00Comments on PolySigh: California and the Electoral CollegePhilip Klinknerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15559722693896372701noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5990055.post-89608977855777891122007-10-01T10:17:00.000-04:002007-10-01T10:17:00.000-04:00Very informative. Thanks!Very informative. Thanks!Micah Tillmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05330667781305762700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5990055.post-87666866752702650322007-09-29T23:28:00.000-04:002007-09-29T23:28:00.000-04:00Thanks for the perceptive comments and kind words....Thanks for the perceptive comments and kind words. I agree that Republicans were hoping that the initiative would force the Democrats to divert resources. But I don't think that this angle would have worked. In 2008, no state offices are up for election, and there is little threat to any of the state's Democratic seats in the House or the Legislature. Moreover, the State Democratic Committee is rolling in cash. Fighting the electoral college initiative would not have hurt the state Democrats one bit.Pitneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03481420743930913911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5990055.post-85383182254752799022007-09-29T03:56:00.000-04:002007-09-29T03:56:00.000-04:00Great analysis.I don't think there is much of a ch...Great analysis.<BR/><BR/>I don't think there is much of a chance of Giuliani, or any Republican presidential candidate, of winning California in the near future. Even if Arnold ran, if he could, he would find many CA independent voters that originally voted for him still supporting the Democrats for president.<BR/><BR/>For Republicans, therefore, they had nothing to lose backing this initiative. In the short and medium term, Republicans aren't competitive statewide. If this plan passed and was found constitutionally viable (admittedly both major hurdles), the party automatically wins 15-20 electoral votes every four years and allows them to focus almost all of their financial and political capital away from California and into traditional battleground states. Plus, it gives the party a huge electoral advantage if Democrats don't/can't respond with similar initiatives in Texas and other traditionally big Republicans states.<BR/><BR/>All that said, I though the plan's chances were very, very small. Democrats would spend unlimited amounts of money to defat the initiative, and as you pointed out, propositions need high approval ratings early in the process to have any chance of passing.<BR/><BR/>I figured Republicans knew this, and were proposing the plan not really to win, but to distract Democrats both financially and politically during the next election cycle. Every dollar spent by the Republicans might have attracted 2 or 3 Democratic dollars, and the Democrats would focus a great deal of time and resources on putting out this electoral fire, rather than focusing on other races and issues. For that reason alone, I thought the plan was strategically very clever, and was hoping to write about it after it all unfolded.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com