Deliberative Poll in California -- Update

Jim Fishkin just held a deliberative poll in California. One of the topics was district size: participants thought that California's legislative districts are way too big for effective representation. (On average, a state senate district has more people than all of South Dakota.)

AARP's Future

At The New York Times, Fred Lynch advises AARP to shed its ambivalence and come out strongly against cuts in Social Security and Medicare. He is the author of One Nation under AARP: The Fight over Medicare, Social Security, and America's Future (University of California Press).

Courts and Public Policy

In AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO., INC., ET AL. v. CONNECTICUT ET AL., Justice Ginsburg's majority opinion emphasized the limits of judicial competence. Her analysis is reminiscent of Donald Horowitz's landmark 1977 work, The Courts and Social Policy.

Ron Paul and Straw Polls

The case of Ron Paul is a useful case for teaching the difference between straw polls and genuine random-sample surveys. There is a big gap between his performance at events such as CPAC and his standing in national polls. And as the campaign progresses, there will be phone-in and online "polls" showing him far ahead. As ABC News explained years ago, that's because his supporters are unusually motivated to participate in such non-scientific "surveys," rendering them useless as a measure of public opinion.

Gaps in the Web

It is unfortunate that the administration's report on Libya is not available on government websites. The same is true of other documents, as well as many presidential interviews. True, much of the material is available on commercial sites, but as all internet researchers know, such sites often remove items without notice.

Leave of Absence

The Weiner case draws attention to two items of congressional terminology: "leave of absence," which is largely symbolic, and "expulsion," which has occurred only five times in the history of the House.

Macroeconomics and Politics

Conventional poli sci wisdom is affecting the mass media: though there are differences on details, there is broad consensus that macroeconomic variables will have a huge impact on the 2012 election.

Here are some data on unemployment, as well as its impact on electoral outcomes.

California Redistricting

A preliminary staff draft of the California redistricting plan is available.

Joe Mathews is skeptical about the purported effects:

Redistricting supporters have claimed that this redrawing of districts will remake California's politics by creating more political competition -- and more moderates willing to compromise.

That's total bunk.

The public has grown more partisan, and Californians have sorted themselves into like-minded communities, so there's really no way for the commission to create many more competitive districts. (What's more, the commission isn't permitted to look at party data--so creating competition between the parties is pretty much off the table).

Robert Gates on Institutional Change

Outgoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates says that he can't think of any books on leading change in public institutions. Actually, there are a bunch of such books. As the former head of a public policy school, Gates should know that.