Tuesday, November 02, 2004


A few quick things:

a) Even in non-competitive MA, turnout seemed heavy today. I was joined in line by a couple who insisted on driving all the way up from New York to vote, since they had forgotten to send their absentee ballot in.

b) My parents in VA said turnout was very, very thick in the DC suburbs. Zogby had VA tied, and it's been pretty close throughout the campaign season, although almost never for Kerry. A big DC turnout could make the difference, especially if Bush gets an iffy turnout further south. If there is a big surprise tonight, my guess is VA is it.

c) I heard Howard Stern this morning (not my usual fare!), blasting Bush rather than talking to pornstars. He was actually going, very systematically, through the reasons to vote Kerry rather than Bush. Stern is a complete scum, but notice that he has very large listenership in FL (Ft. Meyers, Orlando, Miami, W. Palm Beach, and Tampa); Nevada (Las Vegas and Reno); OH (Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus); Oregon (Portland); Pennsylvania (Phillie, Pittsburgh and York); DC (where he reaches the above-referenced N. Virginia voters); Missouri (St. Louis) and Washington (Seattle). Stern listeners tend to be younger, and they listen to him A LOT, in their car, when they have nothing else to think about. This amounts to millions and millions of free media that the Democrat did not have last time. Not only that, it's free media that is much more visceral and gut-level than anything the Democrats could put up on their own. And unlike Don Imus, who is pro-Kerry but without enthusiasm, Stern is about to bust a vein he hates Bush so deeply. If we see an increase in turnout amoung under-35s in the above media-markets, it may be that Kerry owes Stern a debt of thanks. A pact with the devil--literally!


Anonymous said...

Heavy turnout in SC as well. I waited 40 minutes to vote in this non-competitive state-- typical is more like <10. May prove interesting for the Senate race.

Anonymous said...

Stern has actually been pretty viciously anti-Bush for a while now.

Interestingly enough, he's distinguished between his running feud with the FCC and the election. I remember a while ago, when one caller suggested that a Kerry victory would lead to less censorship, Stern corrected him and said that the censorship would go on anyway - but went on to offer about 982734 other reasons to vote for Kerry.

What's also interesting about Stern is that although a good chunk of his audience probably skews somewhat Democratic, he's been all over the political spectrum - he endorsed Whitman in NJ and Giuliani in NY in their respective races. This probably makes his endorsement and activism somewhat more salient than the usual political hosts with highly partisan audience that are likely to already be pretty riled up.

Kevin Grinberg


~40 said...

I was at Democracy Plaza all night last night (yes I got free airtime - ala Hardball) - and the buzz was that people were motivated to go out and vote - especially young people.

I think tonight we will witness a massive turnout, regardless of the long lines. Walking across the street to my own polling place with my Krispey Kream in hand, I waited about 10mintues to vote at 6am - even at my polling place there was problems - such as unsecure filled out provisional ballots.

Looking at the early exit poll data, it seems Kerry may win this outright, lets see tonight bt 9pm.

Go Prof. K!!!!!!


TechnoBabe said...

Not meaning to be nitpicky at all, but Ft. Myers, Fla. is spelled as such (no extra e)and not like Ft. Meyer in Virgina.