Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Exit Polls

Exit Polls reported by Taegan Goddard's PoliticalWire.com look good for Kerry so far. I have no idea who is responsible for these polls or how they conducted them, so buyer beware. With this caveat, here they are:

Kerry Bush
AZ 45 55
CO 48 51
LA 42 57
PA 60 40
OH 52 48
FL 51 48
MI 51 47
NM 50 48
MN 58 40
WI 52 43
IA 49 49
NH 57 41


Can you believe these numbers will stay in this range?? A whopping 60-40 in favor of Kerry in PA? Insignificant leads in OH and FL, but sizeable leads in the upper midwest states of MN and WI.

Does anyone recall whether Democrats or Republicans tend to vote early? Are these polls biased toward the female vote?...drop the kids off at school, go to the nearby polling station....At any rate, I expect these to tighten by night's end.

Given these good-looking numbers I was surprised to read Mark Mellman's pre-post-mortem in The Hill today. He's a pollster for Kerry (I had to check the bio twice to make sure). It is the most bizarre column coming from a campaign consultant I have ever read.

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