Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Exit Poll Rorschach

Ray posted the leaked early exit poll results. Frankly, I think they're bunk. They were apparently overweighted toward women, and even if we knew the partisan balance of early vs. late voters in the past, we don't know how this is effected by the increasing prevalence of early/absentee voting. Which means that these polls are, at this point, just a Rorschach test of partisanship: if you like Kerry, you look into them and find support for your guy. Go to the gym and come back at 7pm, when we'll start to see something real.

1 comment:

Ray La Raja said...

Steven, I agree these polls should not be taken too seriously. And as I think about it, I feel a bit silly to have posted them without knowing who the hell put them together. In spite of what you say about Rorschach test, I think these numbers look good for Kerry, and I almost feel like a dupe to some operative who may have planted them.