Sunday, October 17, 2004

New Jersey--Chill Out

Every now and then since the Republican convention and the McGreevey blow-up, Republican boosters have crowed about the closeness of polls in New Jersey. For example, the most recent poll listed at has the race there with a two-point margin. To everyone who is getting themselves all hot and bothered about this, relax. New Jersey is not going Republican any more than Virginia is going Democratic. If you examine, for example, the most recent NJ poll, you see that it has Bush at 42%. No sitting president polling at this level has even a remote chance of winning. And note that most of the polls that optimistic Republicans were depending upon still showed Kerry at or near 50%, and most of these were done by lower-quality polling organizations (the most recent poll was conducted by Farleigh Dickinson University, which may be a fine institution, but lacks the sophistication and resources of the big boys. Kerry will win New Jersey by at least 8 points, and you can ridicule me on November 3 if I'm wrong.

No comments: