Thursday, October 07, 2004

EV Predictions

It is now time for all of us to lay down our bets on the final (post-litigation!?!?) electoral vote count. I will now go on the record with a bet that the election goes to Kerry, with 305 EVs. I am NOT interested in anyone attacking this prediction on the basis of perceived ideological/partisan bias. If you don't buy it, you don't buy it, but your skepticism must be accompanied by an alternative prediction. (note: my prediction is based on Colorado voting to split its electoral votes. If they don't, which I don't have the confidence to predict, then my prediction is 301 EVs). Whoever wins, contributors or our readers, receives....well, nothing really, except our esteem, whatever that's worth.


Thomas said...

My bet is that it goes to Bush, with 310 electoral votes. That assumes that CO won't split its vote.

Anonymous said...

Dear Prof. K,

I give 270+ the Split of CO to Kerry!!

Ok, I agree with your predictions that Kerry may win,
In terms of the EV count, I don’t feel it will be a run away of 300+ for Kerry as the nation is very partisan.
In terms of my EV count, I give Kerry about 270 plus what ever is divided up from Colorado. I give him all of Gore’s states except Wisconsin, as I am not sure how it will turn out there and same thing goes for New Hampshire; I do give Kerry Ohio, as several polls now predict it will swing his way.

LET me say this: how much either one wins by will be determined by the next two debates and outside events; SO if Bush Bombs the next two debates, Kerry could pick up more EV’s; if OB is caught, things are in limbo.

In terms of the state of Florida, it is to early to tell how it will turn out, b/c of the Hurricane season, if south Florida can pull it off, and the Cuban community is against Bush and they carry the state in terms of #of votes - then I would give their 27 EV’s to Kerry, but I leave them in the undecided column right now.

I may come back for an update,
but I give 270+ the Split of CO to Kerry.

Mo ‘03

Anonymous said...

I hope you're right. The current polling doesn't bear it out, but there is a huge problem with our polling methods - they are only conducted over landline telephone. I think that it is fair to assume that more young people do not have landlines and that young people would favour Kerry over Bush (in general) so that should help Kerry a bit.