After a week or so of delinquent blogging due to the beginning of classes, I'm back! Restrain your excitement, please.
First thing to notice is the changing contours of the electoral-vote.com map. It's 256-239, Bush, with Arkansas and Florida tied. The first thing to be noted is that Kerry's vote should probably be 264, because no one I know really believes that Bush will even come relatively close in NJ or MD. Second, if CO chooses to split its electoral votes, then you add another 4 EVs to Kerry's tally, putting him at 268. From there, things get dicier. Kerry needs to hold his tenuous lead in IA, WI and MN, all of which are at or near the margin of error. He needs to maintain his hold on NH and ME, which are tight but where the trend over the last few months has been in his favor.
If he does all this, it is worth noting that he can still lose FL, OH, WV, and Nevada, if he manages to carry now-split Arkansas. Arkansas has been at or near the margin of error this whole campaign, and the polls have been remarkably consistent. Basically my sense is the state is within the range where the ground game could be decisive. If the Democrats can manage to get very large black turnout in the state, and if Kerry can move just a few percentage points of the white vote, he could win it. This is a state where a relatively small investment by the DNC or the 527s could make all the difference. It's probably worth the effort.
If I were Kerry, then, I'd probably move whatever marginal resources I had away from MO and OH, which I think are increasingly unlikely, and shift them to AR, Nevada and Florida. If he can hold what he's got and add these three states, he's got 300 electoral votes. Close, but with at least a decent buffer.