Tuesday, September 21, 2004

The Shape of the Race

After a week or so of delinquent blogging due to the beginning of classes, I'm back! Restrain your excitement, please.

First thing to notice is the changing contours of the electoral-vote.com map. It's 256-239, Bush, with Arkansas and Florida tied. The first thing to be noted is that Kerry's vote should probably be 264, because no one I know really believes that Bush will even come relatively close in NJ or MD. Second, if CO chooses to split its electoral votes, then you add another 4 EVs to Kerry's tally, putting him at 268. From there, things get dicier. Kerry needs to hold his tenuous lead in IA, WI and MN, all of which are at or near the margin of error. He needs to maintain his hold on NH and ME, which are tight but where the trend over the last few months has been in his favor.

If he does all this, it is worth noting that he can still lose FL, OH, WV, and Nevada, if he manages to carry now-split Arkansas. Arkansas has been at or near the margin of error this whole campaign, and the polls have been remarkably consistent. Basically my sense is the state is within the range where the ground game could be decisive. If the Democrats can manage to get very large black turnout in the state, and if Kerry can move just a few percentage points of the white vote, he could win it. This is a state where a relatively small investment by the DNC or the 527s could make all the difference. It's probably worth the effort.

If I were Kerry, then, I'd probably move whatever marginal resources I had away from MO and OH, which I think are increasingly unlikely, and shift them to AR, Nevada and Florida. If he can hold what he's got and add these three states, he's got 300 electoral votes. Close, but with at least a decent buffer.

9 comments:

jeff said...

You're kidding, right? The electoral vote totals you quote, admit to being a Kerry biased report. You're a political scientist? You alone, explain and exemplify the problems with academia. You are so determined that you/libs/kerry/press are "all-knowing" thatg you intentionally mislead. You are a hoax. It's all GWB in 2004. Focus your venom, hate and fiction on 2008.

Anonymous said...

Good heavens, the polls are showing Jersey as going for Bush? How can anyone think that that could possibly be accurate?

I feel much better now.

StevenTeles said...

Jeff,

The medication only works if you take all three pills each day, with food.

steve

jeff said...

AH..., thank you Steve. And you take yours with kool-aid from the DNC ?

StevenTeles said...

Touche. :-)

Rothko said...

Speaking of poll numbers...has anybody seen that poll of Al Qeda operatives Denny Hassert quoted the other day when he said John Kerry was the terrorists canidate of choice?

It sounds and looks like the new Kerry offensive is effecting the sanity of more than just Jeff...

PS...Real libs/dems/press drink whiskey straight up...kool-aid, even the rat-poison-spiked kind, is for wusses...

Anonymous said...

You posted too quickly. I guess you didn't see the Knight-Ridder/MSNBC battleground state polls out today.

Those show a Bush lead in Iowa, Minnesota, Oregon, New Mexico, and Wisconsin.

Those are all states that Al Gore won.

I don't believe that Bush is going to win NJ, but I don't have any doubt that he'll win at least two of the three of MN, IA and WI. Similarly, I don't have any doubt that he'll carry Arkansas.

My guess is that the electoral-vote.com map won't be updated very quickly, despite the existence of polls showing a much different result. That's been the trend the last few weeks. Better to simply watch the newswire for new state polls, and decide whether one finds the results to be credible, rather than have someone else do that without saying so.

Palooka said...

LOL!!!!

The only reason the electoral college looks at all competitive is because all those damn Zogby polls were thrown in there. Get real. The race can go either way, but to realize the momentum has been and still is in Bush's favor is just wrong.

Did you see that Gallup poll showing New York within four points? A full 25% of Dems said they were voting for Bush. Let's just gloss over the facts that don't jive with your hopes.

Pusillanimous Wanker said...

No trackback, so . . . PING!

http://nwab.blogspot.com/2004/09/we-could-win-it.html