I think Phil and I have some difference here on the impact of the debates. I don't think we'll see a repeat of 1980, because my guess is both candidates play it safe, unless for some reason the polls are cutting against them near the end. What is more, if it is Bush who is behind, my guess is that he doesn't have the skills to use the debates to move the voters, and knows it. And Kerry is so deep into risk aversion that I doubt he'll take the chance. So my prediction of little durable shift (as opposed to a temporary bump from the NYC convention) in the polls holds.